For the first time, it appears to me that Obama is poised to win this thing. Now- I may eat my words in a month's time, but the way the polls are going, things aren't looking good for the McCain people. I would make the statement that if the election were held today, Obama would win. Further, barring three scenarios of variable likelihood, Obama should win the November election. What are the three scenarios: 1) if another 9-11 like attack happens between now and the election, McCain should win; this is, hopefully, unliklely; 2) if McCain routs Obama in the two remaining debates; this is also unlikely considering his mundane performance in last night's debate, which was on his strongest subject; 3) if race is more of a factor than it appears to be; this is something we simply cannot predict, but, in my opinion, it seems unlikely.
The most remarkeable thing about Obama's lead is that he hasn't really done anything to earn it. In fact, McCain seems to be working quite hard to give this election to Obama.
Follow me here. Empirically speaking, in January '08 it seemed like this election would go for the Democrats no matter what happened- what with Bush sporting a approval rating less than 30%. The primary season could not have gone better for the Repubs; Clinton and Obama fought to the bitter death, while McCain, the most moderate candidate, won handily. McCain is most certainly the best candidate for the Republicans due to his appeal to moderate independents. By the summer, this election was oh-so-close, even perhaps favourable for McCain.
Today it's still close, but increasingly favourable for Obama. Why? It has absolutely nothing to do with the Obama camp, except perhaps his charisma. What does it have to do with? The McCain campaign is destroying itself. Unfortunately for them, they don't have the brilliant Karl Rove working for them. This election, which could be McCain's to lose, is now Obama's to lose.
Here are four huge mistakes made by the McCain camp:
1) Really sleezy ads. It started in early August with the "celebrity" ad, which invoked Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears. What is Paris Hilton doing in a presidential ad????? What does she have to do with anything?????? Did the McCain people go insane????
Ok. Maybe give them a mulligan for that one. Then they aired this ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHx2P3Yixyk. This was a pretty low attempt to use Hiliary Clinton to their advantage.
Or there was this ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL_PYj7zZAs, baselessly attempting to call Obama sexist.
I think this one tops them all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JoFVoPCMfg. I don't think I need to comment on why this ad is ridiculous, insulting, and disrespectful.
This one is so ridiculous it's just funny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pPAdN6XQG0.
These ads clearly go away from the issues, and call into question McCain's honour. I have enough respect for McCain to believe he didn't personally approve of all these ads. I also think the American electorate is intelligent enough to not buy into these ridiculous ads.
Oh, and I must acknowledge that Obama has aired some negative ads as well. Such as this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK3Y1KPzW9k. The key difference in my opinion is that negative ads from the Obama people either stick strictly to the issues (and don't make baseless character judgements) or, as in this one are directly and justifiably respondind to the ads which I mentioned above.
2. Sarah Palin
At first, McCain's selection of Sarah Palin seemed brilliant. She's an "outsider", a "social conservative", and a "hockey mom from Alaska" who can relate to the average Joe... or Joan. And, after all, she's a women.... and Clinton voters like that, right?
Even I thought it was a brilliant pick. Until, of course, I heard her speak. Yes, she gave a good speech at the RNC.... rather, she gave a well-delivered speech, albeit one full of lies and offensive remarks (I still can't get over the community organiser business....).
But then she had interviews with the media, such as this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj6KviFGzng&feature=related. She doesn't know what the "Bush doctrine" is, she has only had a passport for a year, and she seems to believe she has foreign policy qualifications based on Alaska's proximity to Russia.
McCain's strongest argument against Obama was his inexperience. Yet he chose as his running mate someone with almost a complete lack of experience. Granted, she's running for VP and not president, but a VP still needs to be qualified and ready; after all, she would be a "heartbeat away from the presidency", which is definitely a concern given McCain's age and health.
Not only that.... but she has so much baggage of her own. How about "troopergate"- a scandal for which she's being investigated by the court of Alaska. Then there's the book banning issue; the bridge to nowhere; her pregnant 17 yr old daughter. As if this isn't enough, every time she speaks she seems to turn off more and more people.
The McCain people seemed to believe that she would draw Clinton voters. Yet based on the women with whom I've talked, this is far from true. In fact, I've heard some women say that they decidedly dislike Palin because if she ever became president, she would be so bad that it would ruin it for any other women. To top it off, they're trying to play the sexist card.... something which even top Republicans like Huckabee finds ridiculous.
3. Agreeing with "Bushenomics"
Quite simply, this is why Obama is winning right now. Bush subscribes to X economic theory, particularly tax cuts for the wealthy and for corporations. X economic theory has been practiced since 2000. After 8 years, the economy is in dire straights and people are suffering. McCain still believes in X econonmic theory. Obama supports Y economic theory. Y is different than X, and since people are not happy with the current economy, they want to support Y. McCain should present a radically different economic policy if he wants to win, but that would mean breaking with party lines.
It's important to note that I am not saying that our current economic crisis is BECAUSE of X economic theory. That's something that I do not profess to know; but most Americans will probably see it this way, seeing how things were so good under Democrat Bill Clinton. I personally support Y simply because it benefits me and my family more- as a member of the middle class family.
My Thoughts on the Debate
Personally, I don't think either candidate won the debate. I thought both candidates appeared poised and articulate. I got the impression that both candidates were equally qualified to serve. Most pundits say that Obama won the economic part, but I'm not so sure that's true. Both candidates dodged the question about the bailout, and how their spending would change. Most pundits say McCain won the foreign policy part, but I don't think that's true either. They both showed they're knowledgeable. McCain perhaps is a bit stuck in a 20th century mindset, and Obama is perhaps in a 22nd century mindest. (My personal bias is with Obama's mindset).
I said that I thought the debate was a draw. This is true if you consider the debate in itself. Considered in larger context, it's a victory for Obama. Why?
1) McCain is currently the underdog, and he needed a change in momentum. He didn't get it here.
2) In Obama's perceived weak areas, he was able to stand up to McCain. I said that both candidates appeared equally ready to serve, and this is what most people think following the polls. Empirically, this is a draw, but in reality it's an Obama victory. Before the debate, no one would argue that McCain is qualified in ready, but there were still doubts about Obama. Thus, the only thing that has changed is the doubts about Obama. Obama did a great job in appearing presidential, articulate, and knowledgeable.
Those are my thoughts and observations. Politics aside, I think this election has been supremely interesting and entertaining, albeit little more than a political circus. Whoever wins will inherit a total mess of a country, and will probably be quite unpopular in the first year. But only time will tell these things.
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