Updated Thoughts on US Election: Why a Republican victory would be surprsing

I don't want to make a pre-emptive claim at an Obama victory, but I believe this election will be historic either way. The historic implications of an Obama victory are obvious- the country's first black president. But the historic implications of a McCain victory??

It would be perhaps the biggest and most improbable comback in US Election history- at least in the last 70 so years.

The fact is, at this point, Obama has pretty much every possible structural advantage. The national polls: Obama has had a statistically significant lead for several weeks now. While his lead has fluctuated between 6 and 11 points, it has still been significant. WIth only two weeks left in this election, overcoming this deficit is not an easy task for McCain.

But it's actually the Electoral College that matters. For the sake of comparison, let's start with the 2004 map. It was actually closer than people might think.... if Obama won only every Kerry state, he would have 252 electoral votes (needing 270 to win, 269 to tie). It now seems extremely likely that Obama WILL win every Kerry State. In fact, as far as I know, McCain has actually conceded these states- except perhaps Pennsylvania and MAYBE New Hampshire. I'll talk about those later, but let's assume now, for the sake of discussion, that Obama wins.

It also seems exceedingly likely that Iowa and New Mexico will go for Obama, which pushes Obama to 264. This means that Obama, in effect, only has to win one of the following "red states" now considered as toss ups: Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. ALSO, winning only Nevada would mean a tie, which, given the current structure of the Legislative Branch, would likely be an Obama victory. In other words, McCain would have to win all 8 of these states in order to win the election. Indiana he should win. Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and Florida might very well go for McCain as well. North Carolina is trending Democrat, but I still have a hard time seeing it vote for Obama, so lets give it to McCain anyway. That leaves us with Colorado and Virginia; in both states, polls show a 5-8 pt Obama lead- quite tough for McCain to win.

The only other possibility? Assuming that McCain wins all the states above EXCEPT for Colorado and Virginia.... in this case, he needs to win Pennsylvania- which will be tough given his current double-digit deficit, but apparantly he's going all out there. Winning NH, would give him leeway in Nevada, but this is an unlikely scenario.

In short, structurally speaking, there are only two ways in which McCain can feasibly win: either he wins all of: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado AND Virginia, OR he wins Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina AND Pennsylvania.

Even if these scenarios seem feasible, Obama has a few more advantages. Firstly, continued wall street volitility only helps Obama. Secondly, Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama is a pretty big blow to McCain's campaign. Thirdly, what is rarely talked about, Obama's campaign has a lot more money and can simply outcampaign the McCain people. Obama is even hoping to buy primetime airspace the week before the election! McCain, with limited resources, must scramble. He's also forced to campaign in states he earlier thought he would win, while conceding important blue states (eg, Michigan).

Not to say it's impossible for McCain... it just would be a remarkable turnaround. And with only two weeks left, something BIG has gotta happen.