Updated Thoughts on US Elections: Why Republicans are sinking lower, and why this is helping Obama

The following things have been heard at Palin and McCain rallies in the past week: "[Obama is a] terrorist!" "Treason!" "Off with his head" "Kill him!" i"m not making this stuff up. Read this http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/more-hatred-at-rallies-of_n_133115.html, or you-tube it.

There are a few things that are striking about this. Most obviously, is the pure passion and hatred associated with this election. This goes back to a point I made in my prior entry, namely, how the US is in the midst of a culture war that very well could turn voilent. These comments have pure signs of hatred.... not polite disagreement... HATRED. It may or not be racially motivated, but even if it isn't, this is beyond disturbing. Even if you don't agree with his values of political positions, there is no reason to HATE Barack Obama. Obama, like McCain, is a normal human being, who has served his country. Obama is a loving husband and father. How anyone could say such hateful things about ANYONE is beyond me.

What's even more disturbing is the Republican response to this. At best, they've done nothing. Neither McCain nor Palin have publically condemned this. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they didn't hear these shouts when they happened. It must be loud on stage, and someone like McCain has got to have a bit of difficulty hearing. But that doesn't mean they're unaware that these things were happened, given all the you-tube & CNN time they've received. Many Americans know about it, so surely they should as well. Obama certainly knows about it. Assuming they know about it, then they should PUBLICALLY CONDEMN this behaviour. They should run an ad, similar to the positive one they ran on the last day of the DNC, which shows that McCain respects and honours, but disagrees with Obama. This is a civil election, not an all out war, and it disgusts me. In my eyes, unless McCain publically condemns these horrible outcries, he has lost his honour. Paradoxically, some Republicans are blaming OBAMA for this: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/10/1529529.aspx. I'll dismiss that as absolute insanity.

The silver lining in this? Obama's response. Many candidates would be quite shaken by the things being said about him. What does Obama say? He says that he can handle one month of "character assasination", but Americans can't handle 4 years of more negativity. Obama has not blatantly backlashed against McCain. Yes, I'm not going to deny that there has been some negativity in the Obama campaign, but as I said in an earlier entry, nothing of this level. Obama ties McCain to Bush quite often, and he substantiates it with the fact that McCain really hasn't lined out a concrete policy difference from Bush, besides perhaps the minimal issue of "earmark spending". So in this sense, Obama's attack is valid. McCain being out of touch with the economy? Pretty valid when until just recently McCain didn't think the economy was much of an issue, and even now they are trying to turn the page on the economy, despite the fact that in the last week alone, Wall Street has lost about 25% of its wealth. So, I'd say Obama is very justified in this attack. Perhaps the worst attack on McCain is a jab at his honour, and the claim that he's erratic. This too is substantiated with recent events. How can McCain be honourbale when he launches blatantly false ads claiming Obama supports "comprehensive sex eduation for kindergartners" or that Obama "palls around with terrorists". This coming from a man who claimed he would take the "high road". So much for that. Erratic? How about the whole campaign suspension fiasco.... the contempt for Obama at the debates... the not-bringing-up Jeremiah Write, then bringing him up.... &c. &c. &c.

How does OBama respond to all this? He's cool, collected... in a word, presidential. Perhaps he has no "official" "executive" experience, but look at the campaign he's ran! In the face of adversity and viscious character assasination, perhaps worse than he'll ever receive as president, Obama has run a successful and reasonably clean campaign. Obama himself has been consistent and smooth. He clearly has respect for McCain. Even his body language in the debate, compared to McCain. He feels comfortable in his own skin. After all, you don't hear "kill him!" at Democratic rallies.

All of this has only hurt McCain. His polls have gone down drastically; Gallup has him consistently down by double digits on the national poll; CNN's current map shows that Obama needs to win only ONE of seven toss-up states, including states in which he's currently leading, such as Virginia, Nevada, Colorodo, and even Florida! And he only needs ONE of those!

Only one of three things could deliver a McCain victory.... (emphasis the word COULD). Firstly is a clear rout in the final debate. Given the previous debates this is quite unlikely. Obama is out-McCaining McCain in the debates, and I don't see anything more than a draw happening. Secondly is another 9-11 like attack, but with less than 4 weeks left this simply seems unlikely (although its possible that the Republicans would engineer one just to win the election- at this point, i would not put it beneath them). Thirdly, is the race issue. Are people lying to the polls becauuse they are ashamed to admit they would not vote for a black person? I would be surprised and utterly disappointed if this were the case. If nothing major happens in the next 4 weeks, and McCain wins, its quite possible this is the reason. In that case, it would be a national travesty worthy of lament. Not so much a McCain presidency, but the affirmation of the fact that the US has not yet emerged from its racist past. But, given that Obama was able to win the primaries against a very worthy and formidable opponent, I'd like to this this is unlikely.

Even if these things happen, a McCain victory just seems almost inconceivable now. The fact is... and what both candidates realise.... "it's the economy, stupid". Especially right now, and it won't change in less than 4 weeks, the US is in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. McCain is by no means an economic stalwart and does little to inspite people of his expertise and ability to revive the economy. And, whether this is fair or not, his association with the republican party that has been in power for 8 years is hurting him. This is not necessarily true, but Bush and the Republicans are seen as the cause of the current crisis... and the Dems are quite smart for pointing this out. Of course, Obama doesn't strike anyone as the economic specialist either, but ONLY by virtue of his association with the alternate party can he legitimately effect his message of change. Change, when the economy is in a spiral unseen in our lifetimes, is what people want. The fact is, in a volatile time like now, people will vote with their wallot, not based on obscure scandals.